Coronavirus

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RRM
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RRM »

dime wrote: Sun 05 Apr 2020 15:55 UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden have quite a bit less testing in comparison to Norway, Switzerland, Germany, Italy.
Yes. Containing the virus is about a whole package of essential moves. Testing is one of them.
Sweden, UK and The netherlands have/had more or less decided to let it go; not trying to contain the virus as strictly as possible.
This is reflected in their testing numbers and reported deaths vs recoveries.
They are starting to talk about slowly relaxing the measures, and mentioning herd immunity in Germany.
Of all European countries, Germany is best positioned to do so, as they seem to be doing best.
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Aytundra
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Aytundra »

Is anyone doing things different because of this virus?
How is everyone cleaning their surfaces?
How frequently do you clean your surfaces?
What surfaces do you clean?
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Oscar
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Oscar »

So, considering there are currently 79k deaths worldwide, that'd mean around 310k per year. For the common flu, the number of deaths per year varies between 291k and 646k.
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Aytundra
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Aytundra »

@100k deaths currently
That is +21k, from previous post and 24 hour has not even elapsed. @Oscar what are you going to predict?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1180866

Check this out: It can stay on masks for up to 7 days!
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... hic-2020-3
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanm ... ltext#sec1
https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S ... b/mmc1.pdf
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RRM
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by RRM »

So, considering there are currently 79k deaths worldwide, that'd mean around 310k per year.
The world is just starting to get infected. Africa, India, South America etc are in the early stages.
im guessing initial annual deaths may be 5 fold higher than the flu numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by dime »

This virus is somewhat more infectious than common flu, and it's much stronger outside a host. The sun isn't really effective at deactivating it at all, so we are stuck with it even in summer.
Spreading is exponential, those 79k will multiply many times by the end of the year. Without the social distancing lockdown measures implemented we would see millions of deaths per year.
The mistake you make in your calculation Oscar is easy to illustrate: take the number of deaths in the first month and multiply by 12. From the data online the number of deaths on Feb 22 is 2500, times 12 it's 30,000, i.e. 10x lower from your current estimate.
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Oscar
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Oscar »

Yeah, you're right, a linear increase isn't what it's going to be, but growth will reach a peak and then decline, and the faster it spreads, the sooner that peak will be reached. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Aytundra
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Aytundra »

So is this why they are panicking?
Because the rules that have been set for ventilation and intubation in the past, does not make sense with COVID-19?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp5RMutCNoI
Silent Hypoxemia
People with COVID show up with low oxygenation of the blood. Too low in their hospital standards (definitely require intubation in their old standard "45 to 50 %" , ), however the people are acting normal "talking coherently" back to the doctors, enough that they don't look like they are suffering from low oxygenation of the blood. But the catch is that if they intubate the people most will die from the risky procedure.
A tundra where will we be without trees? Thannnks!
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